GOP 2012 race: Does it boil down to ‘purity’ vs. electability?

Already, the outlines of a possible showdown between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are coming into focus in the GOP presidential nomination race.

It is, of course, way too early to predict that with any certainty. The field is still forming; Texas Gov. Rick Perry might jump in, a potential game-changer. And most Republican voters are not firm in their choice of candidate – if they have chosen at all. But Congresswoman Bachmann made a strong showing in the first major Iowa poll, released last weekend, and Mr. Romney has built a solid lead in the other early nominating state – New Hampshire – and in national polls.

For now, though, it’s easier to see Romney’s path to the nomination. He is organized, raising lots of money, and, as a repeat candidate, less likely to make rookie mistakes than are the newbies. So with about a half-year to go before the first nominating contests, conservative activists and Republican leaders are beginning to contemplate the possibility that Romney, a relative moderate, could win the nomination, while grass-roots energy lies with the conservative tea party.

How damaging could that disconnect be? Look at what happened with Sen. John McCain, the losing GOP nominee in 2008, who was not a down-the-line conservative, says Matt Kibbe, president and chief executive officer of FreedomWorks, a Washington-based outfit that advises tea party groups.

“The same might happen with Romney,” says Mr. Kibbe. With Mr. McCain, “you had a lack of enthusiasm, which meant less work, fewer people bothering to show up on Election Day at the margin. That’s the reality if Republicans nominate a candidate who’s not exciting or even acceptable to fiscal conservatives who do so much of the work.”

In Florida, both an early primary state and a critical swing state in the general election, one active tea party group is focused mostly on local tax issues and on ousting the state’s Democratic senator, Bill Nelson, who is up for reelection. But the presidential race is never far from thought.

“We have high hopes a couple of other people will jump in the race,” says Eric West, chairman of the St. Augustine (Fla.) Tea Party, listing Governor Perry, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan as possibilities. “Overall, I would say we’re not pleased with who the anointed front-runner is right now.”

But were Romney to get the nomination, “then we’d all have to do our job – make sure [President] Obama does not get reelected,” Mr. West says.

If tea party is tepid on GOP nominee?

West notes that as a member of the local Republican executive committee, he is obligated to support the party’s nominee. The same can’t be said for tea party activists, who can be aggressively independent. And if the Republicans mount anything less than an enthusiastic turnout operation, as Mr. Obama did in 2008, that could spell the difference between victory and defeat in a close election.

West and Kibbe don’t expect a third party to spring up in the face of a Romney nomination, but there’s really no predicting how the highly decentralized tea party movement would react. It’s always possible that support for an independent tea party-backed candidacy could grow organically out of a disgruntled movement.

“I’m not predicting a third party, and I would never support that, because I think it’s a bad strategy,” says Kibbe. “But if the Republican Party fails to produce a candidate that meets basic standards, that’s always a problem.”

For now, Republican leaders are urging party members to remain focused on defeating Obama and nominating someone who both satisfies conservatives and can win in the general election. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, has been warning party faithful in speeches not to get “hung up on purity.” Whoever the party nominates will be “many multiples better” than Obama, he says.

“In politics purity is a loser,” Governor Barbour told the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans on June 17. “As I say, our candidate won’t be perfect. But in this business it is unity that wins elections.”